THE USE OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS IN THE STUDY OF DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY MEASURES (BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF FERTILITY STIMULATION IN RUSSIA) / Shubat Oksana,Bagirova Anna // . - 2017. - V. , l. . - P. 47-52.

ISSN/EISSN:

нет данных / нет данных

Type:

Proceedings Paper

Abstract:

Russia is experiencing steady population decline. One of the reasons for this is low fertility. The other major problem is insufficient housing availability. In today's political discussion, these two problems are often presented as interconnected. The aim of our research is to analyse the relationship between fertility dynamics and provision of housing in Russia in order to subsequently assess the effectiveness of the most expensive measure for stimulating fertility in the state's history the so-called ``maternity capital{''}. We estimated regression models for the time series of fertility rates and the availability of housing. To assess the strength of relationship between the time series, we analysed correlation between regressions' residuals in two models. A retrospective analysis of the time series showed no correlation between the two in a historical context. Throughout the time that the maternity capital was in place the correlation analysis also revealed no relationship between them. Our analysis showed that these variables were not significantly correlated either in urban or rural Russian areas. We can conclude that the introduction of maternity capital in Russia was not underpinned by profound statistical and demographic analysis. Our results also give reason to question the effectiveness of maternity capital.

Author keywords:

Econometric models; time series analysis; demographic policy; total fertility rate; maternity capital

DOI:

нет данных

Web of Science ID:

ISI:000404420000008

Соавторы в МНС:

Другие поля

Поле	Значение
Editor	Paprika, ZZ and Horak, P and Varadi, K and Zwierczyk, PT and VidovicsDancs, A and Radics, JP
Booktitle	PROCEEDINGS - 31ST EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON MODELLING AND SIMULATION ECMS 2017
Note	31st European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, ECMS 2017, Corvinus Univ Budapest, Corvinus Business Sch, Budapest, HUNGARY, MAY 23-26, 2017
Organization	European Council Modell \& Simulat; Budapest Univ Technol \& Econ; Central European Train Ctr Brokers Kozep-europai Brokerkepzo Alapitvany; Corvinus Univ Budapest, Corvinus Business Sch; KELER CCP Ltd; MVM Grp; CLASS Hungaria Kft; FEMALK Zrt
Publisher	EUROPEAN COUNCIL MODELLING \& SIMULATION
Address	SCHOOL COMPUTING \& MATHEMATICS, NOTTINGHAM TRENT UNIV, BURTON STREET, NOTTINGHAM, NG1 4BU, ENGLAND
Language	English
ISBN	978-0-9932440-4-9
Research-Areas	Computer Science; Business \& Economics; Engineering
Web-of-Science-Categories	Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence; Economics; Engineering, Industrial
Author-Email	o.m.shubat@urfu.ru a.p.bagirova@urfu.ru
ResearcherID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/M-7440-2013 Shubat, Oksana/M-7443-2013
ORCID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/0000-0001-5653-4093 Shubat, Oksana/0000-0002-0929-8144
Funding-Acknowledgement	Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation {[}02.A03.21.0006]; Graduate School of Economics and Management of Ural Federal University
Funding-Text	The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract No 02.A03.21.0006. The project was also sponsored by the Graduate School of Economics and Management of Ural Federal University.
Number-of-Cited-References	17
Usage-Count-Last-180-days	2
Usage-Count-Since-2013	2
Doc-Delivery-Number	BH9XI