SEASONAL VARIATION IN RUSSIAN BIRTH RATE: STATISTICAL ESTIMATES AND AFFECTING FACTORS / Shubat Oksana,Bagirova Anna // . - 2014. - V. , l. . - P. 1337-1345.

ISSN/EISSN:

нет данных / нет данных

Type:

Proceedings Paper

Abstract:

The article presents the results of monthly numbers examining of birth in Russia. The analysis of seasonal birth rate variations was based on official state statistics data for the period from 2006 to 2012 and the data of expert survey. Classical seasonal decomposition (additive model) was applied to identify seasonality, and the experts' opinions were used to verify statistical estimates. The analysis shows that there are seasonal fluctuations in Russian fertility dynamics: the highest values of Russian birth rate are observed during 3 months - in July, August and October, and the lowest levels - in January, February and April. The results of an expert survey shows the birth seasonality in Russia responds to variety of factors among which there are the following four: social, biological, religious and psychological ones. For some months their effect on the fertility can be restrictive and for the other period the impact of these factors can be stimulative. For some months the impact of the only one factor can appears and for the other months several factors can affect fertility simultaneously.

Author keywords:

birth rate; fertility; seasonality; socio-psychological factors HUMAN-FERTILITY

DOI:

нет данных

Web of Science ID:

ISI:000350226700130

Соавторы в МНС:

Другие поля

Поле	Значение
Editor	Loster, T and Pavelka, T
Booktitle	8TH INTERNATIONAL DAYS OF STATISTICS AND ECONOMICS
Note	8th International Days of Statistics and Economics, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC, SEP 11-13, 2014
Organization	Univ Econ, Dept Stat \& Probabil \& Dept Microecon; Univ Econ, Fac Business Econ; ESC Rennes Int Sch Business
Publisher	MELANDRIUM
Address	FUGNEROVA 691, SLANY, 27401, CZECH REPUBLIC
Language	English
ISBN	978-80-87990-02-5
Keywords-Plus	HUMAN-FERTILITY
Research-Areas	Business \& Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
Web-of-Science-Categories	Economics; Management; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Author-Email	o.m.shubat@urfu.ru a.p.bagirova@urfu.ru
ResearcherID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/M-7440-2013 Shubat, Oksana/M-7443-2013
ORCID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/0000-0001-5653-4093 Shubat, Oksana/0000-0002-0929-8144
Number-of-Cited-References	10
Usage-Count-Since-2013	20
Doc-Delivery-Number	BC1KN