THE SCORING MODEL OF FERTILITY: ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITY OF SECOND BIRTHS IN RUSSIA / Shubat Oksana,Bagirova Anna // . - 2013. - V. , l. . - P. 1261-1268.

ISSN/EISSN:

нет данных / нет данных

Type:

Proceedings Paper

Abstract:

The growth of higher-order births is extremely important for demographic future of Russia and overcoming the depopulation trend in the country. Actually, in modern Russia the one-child family is a modal tendency. The article presents a scoring model of fertility, which enables to estimate the probability of second births for Russian women. Binary logistic regression is used to identify the determinants of fertility. Among the latter were detected by both objective and subjective factors. ROC-analysis is used to identify the optimal cut-off value and to improve the quality of binary classifiers. The survey of 1,296 pregnant women is the empirical basis for modeling. This survey was conducted in Russian antenatal clinics and parenting hospitals in 2011. The developed model enables to expand the idea of stimulating the birth rate in Russia and to improve measures of state support for families. In particular, it allows defining the target audience of implementing demographic policies. The scoring model of fertility makes it possible to evaluate the effect of the ongoing pro-natalist policies and to predict the prospects of demographic processes in Russia on the basis of the calculated probabilities of higher-order births for different socio-demographic groups of women

Author keywords:

fertility; determinants of fertility; second births; logistic regression; scoring model SWEDEN; CHILD

DOI:

нет данных

Web of Science ID:

ISI:000339103100126

Соавторы в МНС:

Другие поля

Поле	Значение
Editor	Loster, T and Pavelka, T
Booktitle	7TH INTERNATIONAL DAYS OF STATISTICS AND ECONOMICS
Note	7th International Days of Statistics and Economics, Prague, CZECH REPUBLIC, SEP 19-21, 2013
Organization	Univ Econ, Dept Stat \& Probabil; Univ Econ, Dept Microeconom; Univ Econ, Fac Business Econ; Ceska Sporitelna; ESC Rennes Int Sch Business
Publisher	MELANDRIUM
Address	FUGNEROVA 691, SLANY, 27401, CZECH REPUBLIC
Language	English
ISBN	978-80-86175-87-4
Keywords-Plus	SWEDEN; CHILD
Research-Areas	Demography; Business \& Economics
Web-of-Science-Categories	Demography; Economics; Management
Author-Email	o.m.shubat@ustu.ru a.p.bagirova@ustu.ru
ResearcherID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/M-7440-2013 Shubat, Oksana/M-7443-2013
ORCID-Numbers	Bagirova, Anna/0000-0001-5653-4093 Shubat, Oksana/0000-0002-0929-8144
Number-of-Cited-References	10
Usage-Count-Since-2013	21
Doc-Delivery-Number	BA9BK