Variations of oxygen-18 in West Siberian precipitation during the last 50 years / Butzin M.,Werner M.,Masson-Delmotte V.,Risi C.,Frankenberg C.,Gribanov K.,Jouzel J.,Zakharov V. I. // ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS. - 2014. - V. 14, l. 11. - P. 5853-5869.

ISSN/EISSN:

1680-7316 / 1680-7324

Type:

Article

Abstract:

Global warming is associated with large increases in surface air temperature in Siberia. Here, we apply the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso to explore the potential of water isotope measurements at a recently opened monitoring station in Kourovka (57.04A degrees N, 59.55A degrees E) in order to successfully trace climate change in western Siberia. Our model is constrained to atmospheric reanalysis fields for the period 1957-2013 to facilitate the comparison with observations of delta D in total column water vapour from the GOSAT satellite, and with precipitation delta O-18 measurements from 15 Russian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. The model captures the observed Russian climate within reasonable error margins, and displays the observed isotopic gradients associated with increasing continentality and decreasing meridional temperatures. The model also reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of delta O-18, which parallels the seasonal cycle of temperature and ranges from -25 parts per thousand in winter to -5 parts per thousand in summer. Investigating West Siberian climate and precipitation delta O-18 variability during the last 50 years, we find long-term increasing trends in temperature and delta O-18, while precipitation trends are uncertain. During the last 50 years, winter temperatures have increased by 1.7 A degrees C. The simulated long-term increase of precipitation delta O-18 is at the detection limit (< 1 parts per thousand per 50 years) but significant. West Siberian climate is characterized by strong interannual variability, which in winter is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In winter, regional temperature is the predominant factor controlling delta O-18 variations on interannual to decadal timescales with a slope of about 0.5 aEuro degrees A degrees C-1. In summer, the interannual variability of delta O-18 can be attributed to short-term, regional-scale processes such as evaporation and convective precipitation. This finding suggests that precipitation delta O-18 has the potential to reveal hydrometeorological regime shifts in western Siberia which are otherwise difficult to identify. Focusing on Kourovka, the simulated evolution of temperature, delta O-18 and, to a smaller extent, precipitation during the last 50 years is synchronous with model results averaged over all of western Siberia, suggesting that this site will be representative to monitor future isotopic changes in the entire region.

Author keywords:

GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL; STABLE WATER ISOTOPES; ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE; CLIMATE; DEUTERIUM; SIMULATIONS; VARIABILITY; CYCLE; INFORMATION; RETRIEVALS

DOI:

10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014

Web of Science ID:

ISI:000337803100034

Соавторы в МНС:

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Другие поля

Поле	Значение
Publisher	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Address	BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
Language	English
EISSN	1680-7324
Keywords-Plus	GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL; STABLE WATER ISOTOPES; ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE; CLIMATE; DEUTERIUM; SIMULATIONS; VARIABILITY; CYCLE; INFORMATION; RETRIEVALS
Research-Areas	Meteorology \& Atmospheric Sciences
Web-of-Science-Categories	Meteorology \& Atmospheric Sciences
Author-Email	martin.butzin@awi.de
ResearcherID-Numbers	Masson-Delmotte, Valerie/G-1995-2011 Werner, Martin/C-8067-2014 Gribanov, Konstantin/P-3479-2015 Frankenberg, Christian/A-2944-2013
ORCID-Numbers	Masson-Delmotte, Valerie/0000-0001-8296-381X Werner, Martin/0000-0002-6473-0243 Frankenberg, Christian/0000-0002-0546-5857 Butzin, Martin/0000-0002-9275-7304
Funding-Acknowledgement	Russian government {[}11.G34.31.0064]
Funding-Text	This research was supported by a grant from the Russian government under the contract 11.G34.31.0064. The help of S. Rast, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, for providing model support regarding ECHAM5 nudging aspects is thankfully acknowledged. S. Terzer, IAEA Isotope Hydrology Section, Vienna, provided valuable information regarding water isotope data from Russia. We thank C. Purcell, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, for language checking and two anonymous referees for constructive reviews.
Number-of-Cited-References	70
Usage-Count-Since-2013	21
Journal-ISO	Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Doc-Delivery-Number	AJ6KO